Forecasts for production of olive oil and table olives from 2002 to 2011 have been made for firstly, all respondents trees and secondly, for those trees that may be group marketed. The assumptions used for fruit and oil yield are considered conservative.
The key assumptions in the estimated production figures are:
Yield of olives per tree
Assumption:
- 5 kg/tree for 4 year old trees
- 20kg/tree for trees 5 years old and above
It is noted that these yield figures do not allow for potentially higher yields, particularly for table olive varieties. It is also apparent that fruit yields already being recorded in the North East Victorian region have been higher than 20 kg / tree; for example, two respondents with mature trees (around 10 years old) have advised yields of around 50 kg for Corregiolla, Manzanillo and Verdale varieties.
No allowance has been made for biennial bearing trees.
Oil Yield
It is assumed the oil yield is 15% on average.
Respondents Trees Only
It is noted that the production forecasts are based solely on the trees identified in the survey. It is understood that there are a significant number of trees that were not captured by the survey, although these trees appear to be in large groves, and such enterprises are understood to be less likely to wish to participate in a group marketing structure.
Tables 7-10 below detail the production forecasts for oil and table fruit from 2002-2011.
Total forecast production of olive oil for 2002 is 177,000 litres, of which the group marketed portion is forecast at 66,000 litres.
By 2011, it is forecast that total olive oil production will be 523,000 litres, and the group marketed portion is forecast at 189,000 litres. In fact, this full production level is forecast to be achieved in 2010.
Total forecast production of table olives for 2002 is 33 tonnes, of which the group marketed portion is forecast at 12.5 tonnes.
By 2011, it is forecast that total table olive production will be 203 tonnes, and the group marketed portion is forecast at 74 tonnes. This full production level for table olives is also forecast to be achieved in 2010.
In terms of the value of production of olive products, it is forecast that the value of the region’s production of olive oil at current off-press bulk prices would be some $6.3 million at a per litre price of $12. At retail prices, the region’s olive oil production would equate to between $8.4 million to $10.5 million assuming retail prices equivalent to between $16 and $20 per litre. A significant proportion of the retail market value will be retained in the region based on the assessment of the potential size of the visitor / tourist market (refer to Market Analysis below).
For table olives, it is forecast that the farm gate value of full production could equate to between $0.2 million and $0.4 million at prices of between $1 and $2 per kg. At retail level, the value of the region’s table olives could be between $3 million and $4.1 million.
The total retail value of production of the region’s forecast olive production (when at full production) is therefore forecast to be between $11.4 million and $14.6 million. To place this figure in perspective, the total sales of wine from North East Victorian wineries in 2000 was $44.4 million. Thus the region’s olive industry has the potential to expand into a significant regional industry.
